I expect both of these teams to line up and play Sunday like they have all tournament. Both teams are confident and both teams know their own weaknesses and how to hide them. Both coaches have proven to be stable Captains of their respective ships. The winner of this game will be the team that has the winning tactic and to my eyes – this is Spain. Read the rest and let’s see if you agree.

xG and SOS:

Over the course of the tournament, Spain leads Argentina in xG by 2 – and they did it against much stronger opponents as measured by FIFA rankings. It can be argued that the rankings might not reflect the current form of a team like Egypt for example but the difference between the two teams strength of schedule cannot be ignored:

Avg ranking of team faced by Spain: 9.8

Avg ranking of team faced by Argentina 29.8

Interestingly, despite Spain having the higher xG, Argentina has scored more goals as they have been more clinical in finishing their chances. Argentina has pulled victory from the jaws of defeat twice but I think the law of averages will reward the team that consistently creates more chances and this is Spain.

Edge: Spain

Style of Play:

Argentina was very tough contesting the ball against England and it affected England’s ability to move the ball quickly. Spain presents a different challenger for Argentina as they can move the ball more quickly and provide more options around the ball than England. It is hard for a team to change their identity quickly and I think Argentina’s bouts of aggression which served it well will ultimately be their undoing.

Edge: Spain

Personnel:

Of course Messi is Messi and one does not need to argue whether he is the best that has ever played to analyze his impact on this game. He is a danger man and can hurt you. No more need be said. Let’s be honest though, there are 22 danger men on the field and plenty more on the bench. The average player ratings during the tourney give the slight edge to Spain but this is probably the stat is trust the least. Man to man, this is an even match.

Edge: Even

Overall: Spain wins 2-0